Just some thoughts

Thursday, October 14, 2004

TIME.com has a summery of the Duelfer Report

Based on this article it appears that Saddam didn't even consider the U.S. a threat! TIME.com uses the Duelfer report to arrive at this conclusion. It's amazing how wrong the U.S. was, ostensibly. I think that the neo-cons play geopolitics in a fairly Machiavellian way. Though I'm sure they didn't know the extent of Saddam's frailty, I'm starting to think that the buisness deal Saddam had with France, Russia, and China was the primary reason for war, not WMD.

Let me try to cast myself as a neo-con: With the comming global energy crunch, oil producing nations will have a disproportionate influence on the global economy. France, Russia, and China have very cushy buisness deals with Saddam. They are all permanent members on the UN Security Council. All three of them united will be very hard to defeat when it comes to illiminating sanctions against Iraq. Once sanctions are lifted, they will have access to oil at very low prices, allowing their economies to soar. The critical point is Saddam. Without Saddam, the deals are void. 9/11 is a strong casus belli. If we link Saddam to 9/11, we will have "the right" to remove him from power. Once that is done, France, Russia, and China, will need to find other sources of energy. By using the reconstruction effort to entrench American businesses, we will then take the advantage that those three countries once thought they had.

Supporting that is the fact that the Bush Administration/Family has tight ties with the American energy industry. Therefore energy might be disproportionately on their minds. Add to this, the Russian trouble with Yukos, Japan's interest in "rental reactors" (See: July 2004 issue of Nuclear Energy Insight and this weblog post in 2003), China's activity in Sudan, and elsewhere, and we have a picture of what some nations are trying to do about the energy issue. If all these nations are making strong moves, it is folly to think that we would not. Since our gambit in Venezuela failed, we needed another plan.


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